New whooping cough strain in US raises questions

NEW YORK (AP) — Researchers have discovered the first U.S. cases of whooping cough caused by a germ that may be resistant to the vaccine.

Health officials are looking into whether cases like the dozen found in Philadelphia might be one reason the nation just had its worst year for whooping cough in six decades. The new bug was previously reported in Japan, France and Finland.

"It's quite intriguing. It's the first time we've seen this here," said Dr. Tom Clark of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The U.S. cases are detailed in a brief report from the CDC and other researchers in Thursday's New England Journal of Medicine.

Whooping cough is a highly contagious disease that can strike people of any age but is most dangerous to children. It was once common, but cases in the U.S. dropped after a vaccine was introduced in the 1940s.

An increase in illnesses in recent years has been partially blamed on a version of the vaccine used since the 1990s, which doesn't last as long. Last year, the CDC received reports of 41,880 cases, according to a preliminary count. That included 18 deaths.

The new study suggests that the new whooping cough strain may be why more people have been getting sick. Experts don't think it's more deadly, but the shots may not work as well against it.

In a small, soon-to-be published study, French researchers found the vaccine seemed to lower the risk of severe disease from the new strain in infants. But it didn't prevent illness completely, said Nicole Guiso of the Pasteur Institute, one of the researchers.

The new germ was first identified in France, where more extensive testing is routinely done for whooping cough. The strain now accounts for 14 percent of cases there, Guiso said.

In the United States, doctors usually rely on a rapid test to help make a diagnosis. The extra lab work isn't done often enough to give health officials a good idea how common the new type is here, experts said.

"We definitely need some more information about this before we can draw any conclusions," the CDC's Clark said.

The U.S. cases were found in the past two years in patients at St. Christopher's Hospital for Children in Philadelphia. One of the study's researchers works for a subsidiary of Johnson & Johnson, which makes a version of the old whooping cough vaccine that is sold in other countries.

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JournaL: http://www.nejm.org

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Village mourns latest victim of runaway tour bus crash

MOUNTAIN HOME VILLAGE — Smoke from the warm fire inside Fred Richardson's home hung in the mountain air outside his house Wednesday, masking the heartbreak inside and throughout the tiny creekside town where he lived for seven decades.

His son, Steve, grieved silently on the front porch. Along with the wind sifting through the pines and sycamores, the only other sound came from traffic winding down the mountain highway just a few blocks away — the same highway that took his father's life.

Richardson, 72, was driving to his home in the San Bernardino Mountains on Sunday evening, after wrapping up a landscaping job in Yucaipa, when an out-of-control tour bus traveling down California 38 from Big Bear smashed into his Ford pickup truck.

Richardson clung to life until Wednesday morning, when he died of massive head and chest trauma. He was the eighth fatality resulting from the horrific crash, which killed seven bus passengers.

"We're all still struggling," his son said before turning to go inside with the rest of the family.

Down the street, Richardson's older sister, Jan Fagerstedt, shared her fondest memories. Since he was a toddler, her little brother loved to fish for rainbow trout in the nearby creeks. He was a church deacon. He delivered firewood to homebound neighbors, and once helped save the town from a raging flood.

"He was the most warm-hearted man you'd ever met," she said, pausing to gather strength. "He lived a life. He lived a good moral life.... I miss my brother so."

The night of the deadly crash, Fagerstedt was outside gathering kindling when she heard commotion on the highway less than 100 feet from her home.

"I heard this terrible loud honking. I jumped. And I went in and told my husband, 'You know, I think we have a runaway truck,' " she recalled. "But it had to be that bus. A little while later that accident happened. So that bus went by here, and I heard it. And I thought, 'I hope nobody's in the way.' "

Investigators from the National Transportation Safety Board and California Highway Patrol on Wednesday began a "full mechanical breakdown" of the tour bus and other vehicles involved in Sunday's crash. Investigators continue to pore over maintenance records and interview employees of the bus company, Scapadas Magicas in National City, NTSB spokesman Eric Weiss said.

The investigation will focus heavily on the brakes and other mechanical equipment of a bus that has a history of safety violations, including faulty brakes.

CHP spokesman Mario Lopez said the bus driver, Norberto Perez, has been released from the hospital. The 52-year-old San Ysidro man has not been charged in connection with the accident, Lopez said.

The tour bus left Tijuana early Sunday with 38 passengers, including children, and was returning from the ski resort town of Big Bear Lake when the driver lost control on the sweeping, downhill bends of the mountain road. The bus clipped a sedan and then flipped, ejecting passengers, before hitting Richardson's pickup truck.

News of Richardson's death Wednesday overwhelmed his hometown. Fewer than 100 families live amid the narrow snaking roads of Mountain Home Village, a town hidden in the folds of the San Bernardino Mountains. Some homes, Richardson's among them, were hand-crafted with stones hauled up from nearby Mountain Home Creek.

California 38 used to wind right through town. And it has brought heartache to the Richardson family before.

In the 1960s, Fred Richardson's 4-year-old niece was struck and killed by a passing car after she stepped out of the town market. Another niece, Beaumont City Councilwoman Brenda Knight, was with her cousin when it happened.

"It just doesn't seem fair that a family should suffer so," she said.

phil.willon@latimes.com

Times staff writer Ari Bloomekatz contributed to this report.

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IHT Rendezvous: IHT Quick Read: Feb. 6

NEWS Individual strikes by Predator and Reaper drones are almost never discussed publicly by U.S. officials. But the clandestine war will receive a rare moment of public scrutiny on Thursday, when its chief architect, John O. Brennan, the White House counterterrorism adviser, faces a Senate confirmation hearing as President Obama’s nominee for C.I.A. director. Robert F. Worth reports from Sana, Yemen, and Mark Mazzetti and Scott Shane from Washington.

Bulgaria’s interior minister announced that two of the people behind a July 18 bombing, which killed five Israeli tourists, a Bulgarian bus driver and the bomber, were believed to be members of the military wing of Hezbollah. The finding could have wide-reaching repercussions for Europe’s détente with the Lebanese militant group. Nicholas Kulish and Matthew Brunwasser report from Sofia, and Eric Schmitt from Washington.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad made the first visit by an Iranian leader to Egypt since the two countries broke off diplomatic relations three decades ago. Kareem Fahim and Mayy El Sheikh report from Cairo.

The House of Commons voted overwhelmingly to approve a bill legalizing same-sex marriage in Britain, indicating that the bill is assured of passage as it moves through further legislative stages. John F. Burns and Alan Cowell report from London.

Zhu Ruifeng, who became a celebrity of sorts after posting online a sex video involving a Chinese government official, says he will release more videos involving others. Andrew Jacobs reports from Beijing.

Dell announced that had agreed to go private in a $24 billion deal led by its founder and the investment firm Silver Lake, in the biggest leveraged buyout since the financial crisis. Michael J. de la Merced and Quentin Hardy report.

Liberty Global, the international cable company owned by the American billionaire John C. Malone, agreed to buy the British cable company Virgin Media for about $16 billion. Mark Scott reports from London and Eric Pfanner from Paris.

Asia Pulp and Paper, one of the largest pulp and paper producers in the world, said that it had stopped clearing natural forests across its supply chains in Indonesia, accelerating an earlier commitment to do so by 2015. Sara Schonhardt reports from Jakarta.

ARTS Have you ever awakened from a dream wanting to replay events? That’s just the start of the appeal of the West End revival of “Old Times,” the Harold Pinter play being presented with its two exemplary actresses, Kristin Scott Thomas and Lia Williams, swapping roles. Matt Wolf reviews from London.

The Netherlands Opera perseveres in presenting imaginative repertory absorbingly staged. Last week it turned to a masterpiece of the 19th century with an uplifting new production of Rossini’s final opera, “Guillaume Tell.” George Loomis reviews from Amsterdam.

SPORTS The Olympic champion Lindsey Vonn, whose record-breaking ski racing career has frequently mixed stirring triumph with frightening spills, tore two knee ligaments in a tumbling crash Tuesday and will need reconstructive surgery. Kelley McMillan reports from Schladming, Austria, and Bill Pennington from New York.

When England and Brazil face off Wednesday in London, the two soccer teams will feature players who will have the chance to show they now have the responsibility to match their sizable talents. Rob Hughes reports from London.

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Kim Kardashian's Pregnancy Is No Reason to Speed Divorce, says Kris Humphries

By Mike Fleeman

02/05/2013 at 09:20 PM EST

Kris Humphries and Kim Kardashian

Seth Browarnik/StarTraks

Kim Kardashian's baby is not even born yet and already is being drawn into mama's divorce.

Kardashian, carrying boyfriend Kanye West's child, has bristled at what she sees as stall tactics by estranged husband Kris Humphries to close the legal books on their 72-day marriage.

But Humphries's lawyer Marshall W. Waller writes that "what is really going on here is that an 'urgency' in the form of an apparently unplanned pregnancy" is being used by Kardashian as "an opportunity to gain a litigation advantage (to) prematurely set this matter for trial."

He adds parenthetically that the pregnancy is "something (Humphries) had nothing to do with."

Waller explains his reasoning for calling the pregnancy as unplanned: "Indeed, why would (she) plan to get pregnant in the midst of divorce proceedings?"

Kardashian, herself, recently addressed the timing.

"God brings you things at a time when you least expect it," she said last month. "I'm such a planner and this was just meant to be. What am I going to? Wait years to get a divorce? I'd love one. It's a process."

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Critics seek to delay NYC sugary drinks size limit

NEW YORK (AP) — Opponents are pressing to delay enforcement of the city's novel plan to crack down on supersized, sugary drinks, saying businesses shouldn't have to spend millions of dollars to comply until a court rules on whether the measure is legal.

With the rule set to take effect March 12, beverage industry, restaurant and other business groups have asked a judge to put it on hold at least until there's a ruling on their lawsuit seeking to block it altogether. The measure would bar many eateries from selling high-sugar drinks in cups or containers bigger than 16 ounces.

"It would be a tremendous waste of expense, time, and effort for our members to incur all of the harm and costs associated with the ban if this court decides that the ban is illegal," Chong Sik Le, president of the New York Korean-American Grocers Association, said in court papers filed Friday.

City lawyers are fighting the lawsuit and oppose postponing the restriction, which the city Board of Health approved in September. They said Tuesday they expect to prevail.

"The obesity epidemic kills nearly 6,000 New Yorkers each year. We see no reason to delay the Board of Health's reasonable and legal actions to combat this major, growing problem," Mark Muschenheim, a city attorney, said in a statement.

Another city lawyer, Thomas Merrill, has said officials believe businesses have had enough time to get ready for the new rule. He has noted that the city doesn't plan to seek fines until June.

Mayor Michael Bloomberg and other city officials see the first-of-its-kind limit as a coup for public health. The city's obesity rate is rising, and studies have linked sugary drinks to weight gain, they note.

"This is the biggest step a city has taken to curb obesity," Bloomberg said when the measure passed.

Soda makers and other critics view the rule as an unwarranted intrusion into people's dietary choices and an unfair, uneven burden on business. The restriction won't apply at supermarkets and many convenience stores because the city doesn't regulate them.

While the dispute plays out in court, "the impacted businesses would like some more certainty on when and how they might need to adjust operations," American Beverage Industry spokesman Christopher Gindlesperger said Tuesday.

Those adjustments are expected to cost the association's members about $600,000 in labeling and other expenses for bottles, Vice President Mike Redman said in court papers. Reconfiguring "16-ounce" cups that are actually made slightly bigger, to leave room at the top, is expected to take cup manufacturers three months to a year and cost them anywhere from more than $100,000 to several millions of dollars, Foodservice Packaging Institute President Lynn Dyer said in court documents.

Movie theaters, meanwhile, are concerned because beverages account for more than 20 percent of their overall profits and about 98 percent of soda sales are in containers greater than 16 ounces, according to Robert Sunshine, executive director of the National Association of Theatre Owners of New York State.

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Follow Jennifer Peltz at http://twitter.com/jennpeltz

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L.A. rave promoter moving concert to Devore

After complaints about drug use and noise, a Los Angeles-based rave company is moving one of its annual concerts from its longtime home in San Bernardino to Devore, but some neighbors of the new venue are angry about the change.

Insomniac Inc. decided to shift the Beyond Wonderland rave from the National Orange Show Events Center near downtown San Bernardino to the San Bernardino County-owned San Manuel Amphitheater after tensions with Police Chief Robert Handy and residents. It stages at least two other raves a year at the events center.

Handy said the raves have been marred by increases in crime, along with drug and alcohol abuse among concertgoers. He said undercover officers who attend the raves are routinely offered drugs for sale.

In September, an officer was injured while trying to arrest a suspected Ecstasy dealer at an Insomniac rave, the chief added. He also said Insomniac refused a police request to lower the music volume at an October rave after neighbors complained.

"That's where we reached the impasse," Handy said. "They said, 'We will do what we have to do to continue to make a profit,' " Handy said.

Insomniac spokeswoman Jennifer Forkish denied that the company is relocating Beyond Wonderland because of poor relations with the city. She said in an email response to questions that Handy's statements about the October concert were "categorically untrue."

"We are left to believe that the police chief must have been misinformed," Forkish said. "His comments are his personal perspective based upon secondhand information [that] in no way reflects what occurs at our festivals."

The county Board of Supervisors voted 3 to 2 last week to allow raves at the amphitheater for the first time. County officials said the venue manager, Live Nation Entertainment Inc., the Beverly Hills-based concert and ticketing giant, and the San Bernardino County Sheriff's Department would deploy extra security staff and sheriff's deputies to keep the concert safe and orderly.

That didn't satisfy Supervisor Janice Rutherford, who voted against the raves and said many Devore residents would not welcome them. "They are just a horrible public safety concern, certainly for the young people who attend," she said. "It's not fair to just transfer the impact."

Rutherford said she was troubled by a Los Angeles Times article about raves that was published Sunday. Citing coroners' and law enforcement records, the article disclosed that at least 14 people who attended raves produced by Insomniac and another L.A.-based company have died in circumstances involving drugs since 2006. Two people fatally overdosed at Insomniac raves in San Bernardino, in 2006 and 2009, according to coroners' reports.

Devore resident Darcee Klapp, 51, said she was unhappy about the prospect of raves held less than two miles from her home. "If it doesn't work in one area, why would you jam it down another area's throat and say it'll work here?" Klapp said.

Supervisor Josie Gonzales, who supported the prospect of raves at the amphitheater (formerly called the Glen Helen Pavilion), said in a statement: "By increasing security and limiting the events to those over the age of 18, we can make these events as safe as any other concert we have at the amphitheater. If that proves not to be the case for the first concert, I will urge the Board of Supervisors to join me in banning future events like this."

San Bernardino City Atty. James Penman, who is pushing for an end to raves at the events center, said the move to Devore was not a solution.

"I'm very disappointed that the Board of Supervisors made the decision that they made," Penman said. "The focus ought to be the illegal drug activity that's going on there — that's what caused the deaths."

Forkish, the Insomniac spokeswoman, said in her email that the city attorney's perspective "does not reflect reality."

"We look forward to having a discussion with him and educating him on the issues," she said.

Beyond Wonderland will be held March 16.

ron.lin@latimes.com

paul.pringle@latimes.com

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India Ink: Where a Poet's Vision Lives on in India

Sami Siva for The New York Times

Students have class outdoors at the school Tagore started, now known as Visva-Bharati University.

Great writers often shape our impressions of a place. Steinbeck and Dust Bowl Oklahoma, for instance. Sometimes a writer might even define a place, as Hemingway did for 1920s Paris. Rarely, though, does a writer create a place. Yet that is what the Indian poet and Nobel Prize winner Rabindranath Tagore did with a town called Shantiniketan, or “Abode of Peace.” Without Tagore’s tireless efforts, the place, home to a renowned experimental school, would not exist.

For Indians, a trip to Shantiniketan, a three-hour train ride from Kolkata, is a cultural pilgrimage. It was for me, too, when I visited last July, in the height of the monsoon season. I had long been a Tagore fan, but this was also an opportunity to explore a side of India I had overlooked: its small towns. It was in places like Shantiniketan, with a population of some 10,000, that Tagore — along with his contemporary Mohandas K. Gandhi — believed India’s greatness could be found.

As I boarded the train at Kolkata’s riotous Howrah Station, there was no mistaking my destination, nor its famous resident. At the front of the antiquated car hung two photos of an elderly Tagore. With his long beard, dark eyes and black robe, the poet and polymath, who died in 1941, looked like a benevolent, aloof sage, an Indian Albus Dumbledore. At the rear of the car were two of his paintings, one a self-portrait, the other a veiled woman. Darkness infused them, as it does much of Tagore’s artwork, unlike his poems, which are filled with rapturous descriptions of nature. As the train ambled through the countryside, Tagore’s words echoed in my head. “Give us back that forest, take this city away,” he pleaded in one poem.

The son of a Brahmin landlord, Tagore was born in Calcutta, as Kolkata was called back then, in 1861. He began writing poetry at age 8. In 1913, he became the first non-Westerner to receive the Nobel Prize for Literature. The committee cited a collection of spiritual poems called “Gitanjali,” or song offerings. The verses soar. “The traveler has to knock at every alien door to come to his own, and one has to wander through all the outer worlds to reach the innermost shrine at the end,” reads one.

Tagore became an instant international celebrity, discussed in the salons of London and New York. Today, Tagore is not read much in the West, but in India, and particularly in West Bengal, his home state, he remains as popular — and revered — as ever. For Bengalis, Tagore is Mark Twain, Walt Whitman, Andy Warhol and Steven Sondheim — with a dash of Martin Luther King Jr. — rolled into one. Poet, artist, novelist, composer, essayist, educator, Tagore was India’s Renaissance man. He was also a humanist, driven by a desire to change the world, which is what he intended to do in Shantiniketan. Upset with what he saw as an India that mooched off other cultures — “the eternal ragpickers of other people’s dustbins,” he said — he imagined a school modeled after the ancient Indian tapovans, or forest colonies, where young men meditated and engaged in other spiritual practices. His school would eschew rote learning and foster “an atmosphere of living aspiration.”

Equipped with this vision — and unhappy with Calcutta’s transformation from a place where “the days went by in leisurely fashion,” to the churning, chaotic city that it is today — Tagore decamped in 1901 to a barren plain about 100 miles north of Calcutta. Tagore’s father owned land there, and on one visit experienced a moment of unexpected bliss. He built a hut to mark the spot, but other than that and a few trees, the young Tagore found only “a vast open country.”

Undaunted, he opened his school later that year, readily admitting that it was “the product of daring inexperience.” There was a small library, lush gardens and a marble-floored prayer hall. It began as a primary school; only a few students attended at first, and one of those was his son. Living conditions were spartan. Students went barefoot and meals, which consisted of dal (lentils) and rice, were “comparable to jail diet,” recalled Tagore, who believed that luxuries interfered with learning. “Those who own much have much to fear,” he would say.

Eric Weiner, author of “Man Seeks God: My Flirtations With the Divine,” is working on a book about the connection between place and genius.

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Jillian Michaels: My Son Phoenix Is 'Fiery' Like Me

Mom & Babies
Celebrity Baby Blog

02/04/2013 at 03:00 PM ET

Gregg DeGuire/WireImage

Jillian Michaels‘ son Phoenix is already taking after his mama — just not the expected one!

Although The Biggest Loser trainer expected her baby boy to inherit her partner’s laidback approach to life — Heidi Rhoades delivered their son in May — the 8-month-old’s budding personality is the polar opposite.

“He wants to walk and he gets really pissed about it when he can’t. He gets frustrated,” Michaels, 38, told PEOPLE at the recent TCAs.

“He’s a fiery little sucker, he’s just like me. I’m like, ‘You were supposed to be like Heidi!’ But he’s not. It’s not good, not good.”

Admitting she is “terrified for when he’s a teenager,” Michaels has good reason to be: Recently she spotted her son — who is “crawling aggressively” — putting his electrician skills to the test in the family room.

“He’s into everything, which is kind of a nightmare to be totally honest,” she says. “We have an outlet in the floor in the living room and I caught him eating the outlet on the floor … I was like, ‘Mother of God!’”

Phoenix’s big sister Lukensia, 3, has also been busy keeping her mamas on their toes. “Lu just had her first ski trip and she had a little crush on her teacher, Ollie,” Michaels shares.

“At first I was like, ‘Oh my God, we’re letting our baby go!’ The second day we took her she ran right to him — loves Ollie.”

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Bullying study: It does get better for gay teens

CHICAGO (AP) — It really does get better for gay and bisexual teens when it comes to being bullied, although young gay men have it worse than their lesbian peers, according to the first long-term scientific evidence on how the problem changes over time.

The seven-year study involved more than 4,000 teens in England who were questioned yearly through 2010, until they were 19 and 20 years old. At the start, just over half of the 187 gay, lesbian and bisexual teens said they had been bullied; by 2010 that dropped to 9 percent of gay and bisexual boys and 6 percent of lesbian and bisexual girls.

The researchers said the same results likely would be found in the United States.

In both countries, a "sea change" in cultural acceptance of gays and growing intolerance for bullying occurred during the study years, which partly explains the results, said study co-author Ian Rivers, a psychologist and professor of human development at Brunel University in London.

That includes a government mandate in England that schools work to prevent bullying, and changes in the United States permitting same-sex marriage in several states.

In 2010, syndicated columnist Dan Savage launched the "It Gets Better" video project to encourage bullied gay teens. It was prompted by widely publicized suicides of young gays, and includes videos from politicians and celebrities.

"Bullying tends to decline with age regardless of sexual orientation and gender," and the study confirms that, said co-author Joseph Robinson, a researcher and assistant professor of educational psychology at the University of Illinois in Urbana-Champaign. "In absolute terms, this would suggest that yes, it gets better."

The study appears online Monday in the journal Pediatrics.

Eliza Byard, executive director of the Gay, Lesbian & Straight Education Network, said the results mirror surveys by her anti-bullying advocacy group that show bullying is more common in U.S. middle schools than in high schools.

But the researchers said their results show the situation is more nuanced for young gay men.

In the first years of the study, gay boys and girls were almost twice as likely to be bullied as their straight peers. By the last year, bullying dropped overall and was at about the same level for lesbians and straight girls. But the difference between men got worse by ages 19 and 20, with gay young men almost four times more likely than their straight peers to be bullied.

The mixed results for young gay men may reflect the fact that masculine tendencies in girls and women are more culturally acceptable than femininity in boys and men, Robinson said.

Savage, who was not involved in the study, agreed.

"A lot of the disgust that people feel when you bring up homosexuality ... centers around gay male sexuality," Savage said. "There's more of a comfort level" around gay women, he said.

Kendall Johnson, 21, a junior theater major at the University of Illinois, said he was bullied for being gay in high school, mostly when he brought boyfriends to school dances or football games.

"One year at prom, I had a guy tell us that we were disgusting and he didn't want to see us dancing anymore," Johnson said. A football player and the president of the drama club intervened on his behalf, he recalled.

Johnson hasn't been bullied in college, but he said that's partly because he hangs out with the theater crowd and avoids the fraternity scene. Still, he agreed, that it generally gets better for gays as they mature.

"As you grow older, you become more accepting of yourself," Johnson said.

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Online:

Pediatrics: http://www.pediatrics.org

It Gets Better: http://www.itgetsbetter.org

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AP Medical Writer Lindsey Tanner can be reached at http://www.twitter.com/LindseyTanner

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Long Beach police chief mulls challenge to Baca

Since Lee Baca became Los Angeles County sheriff 15 years ago, defeating an incumbent who died days before the vote, he has never faced a serious challenge for reelection to one of California's top law enforcement jobs.

But after a series of scandals and federal investigations targeting the department, that might be changing.

Long Beach Police Chief Jim McDonnell said Monday that he was considering a run against Baca next year. McDonnell's public exploration suggests potential political vulnerabilities amid nearly two years of bad headlines, experts said.

McDonnell, who served as second in command to Los Angeles Police Chief William J. Bratton before moving to Long Beach, would be the most formidable challenger Baca has yet to face. He was on a county commission that recently excoriated Baca's leadership, depicting him as a disengaged and uninformed manager who failed to stop jailhouse abuse and would have been fired in the private sector.

In an interview, McDonnell said he could offer "a fresh look" at the agency and reforms that "would make a big difference for … the image of the department." He declined to discuss Baca's record, saying he wanted to speak to the sheriff first. But as a member of the commission, McDonnell had harsh words for Baca's stewardship of the agency.

McDonnell's announcement comes as Baca begins raising funds for the 2014 election, making a bid for what would be a fourth term. The campaign begins as federal authorities have launched an investigation into allegations that jail workers abused inmates and another over whether deputies harassed minorities in the Antelope Valley. The jail investigation has already resulted in criminal charges against one deputy, and federal prosecutors have not given a timetable about when the probe will be completed.

Despite these problems, political experts said knocking the four-term sheriff from his post would be a challenge. Baca, 70, is well-known within the county, and has drawn support from a diverse set of ethnic groups and community leaders. Baca has gained a reputation for progressive law enforcement views, such as helping the homeless and providing education for jail inmates.

His spokesman said he's already lined up endorsements from the governor, former L.A. County Dist. Atty. Steve Cooley, Supervisor Zev Yaroslavsky and Bratton.

Raphael Sonenshein, executive director of the Pat Brown Institute of Public Affairs at Cal State L.A., noted that sheriffs have traditionally served with little risk of being unseated, but that Baca has recently weathered an unusual amount of criticism.

"If ever there was a time when a sheriff might be in a certain amount of peril, this would be the time," Sonenshein said.

But Baca, he said, has more than a year before the election to show he's made headway in fixing the department's problems. "He has the advantage of an incumbent," Sonenshein said. "He can show himself to be in charge over the next year."

In addition to the federal probes, Baca had been under fire for giving special treatment to friends and supporters, including launching "special" criminal investigations on behalf of two contributors. The department attracted further attention following disclosures of a secret clique of elite gang deputies, who allegedly sported matching tattoos and celebrated shootings.

Baca's spokesman, Steve Whitmore, said the sheriff has listened to the criticism, and is responding. Last year, the sheriff announced a sweeping jail reform plan aimed at curbing abuses and improving accountability.

"The Sheriff's Department is probably in the best shape it has ever been," Whitmore said. He added that Baca is unconcerned about the potential challenge from McDonnell: "It doesn't faze him.... It's not a threat. There's no threat here."

A recent poll found that 52% of likely voters disapproved of the sheriff's job performance, with just 38% approving. But when voters were asked whether they had a favorable view of Baca, the sheriff fared better, with 43% saying they did, compared with 24% who had an unfavorable view. The poll was conducted by district attorney candidate Alan Jackson's campaign, which asked likely voters about several local politicians, including Baca, who had endorsed Jackson's opponent.

McDonnell declined to say when he would make his decision, saying he was still consulting with his family and "trying to get the pulse of the county." He said that if he did run, his reforms "would make a big difference in the quality of services and the image of the department."

McDonnell has eyed higher office before. He was a finalist to replace Bratton, but lost out to Charlie Beck. Seven years earlier, as a candidate for LAPD chief in 2002, McDonnell presented a blueprint for community-based policing that was later adopted by Bratton and served as the foundation for overhauling the organization in the wake of the Rampart corruption scandal.

During his tenure with the LAPD, McDonnell was tasked with helping the department build bridges with the city's diverse communities and political leaders. Colleagues within the LAPD have described him as a gracious, well-liked leader.

Even if McDonnell decides not to run, Baca, who ran unopposed in 2010, will face at least one challenger next year. Little known LAPD Det. Lou Vince confirmed Monday that he is running, blasting Baca for the scandals he's faced in recent years.

"Seriously? There's no cameras in Men's Central Jail? It takes the media to tell him that?" Vince said, referring to cameras the county had purchased to monitor the jails, but the department had been slow to install.

Fred Register, a longtime Democratic political consultant, said that no matter who runs against Baca, the sheriff comes to any political fight with enviable name recognition.

That leaves any challengers facing long odds unless they can raise millions of dollars to pay for a countywide television ad blitz. Baca has probably been hurt by the jail abuse scandal, he said, but the welfare of inmates and protecting them from excessive force is unlikely to resonate enough to undermine his chances of winning reelection.

"The kind of things that would be more likely to hurt a sheriff," Register said, "would be a perception of corruption or graft or some catastrophic failure that threatens people's public safety."

robert.faturechi@latimes.com

jack.leonard@latimes.com

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